【摘要】：Fracture prediction is a technical issue in the field of petroleum exploration and production worldwide. Although there are many approaches to predict the distribution of cracks underground, these approaches have some limitations. To resolve these issues, we ascertained the relation between numerical simulations of tectonic stress and the predicted distribution of fractures from the perspective of geologic genesis, based on the characteristics of the shale reservoir in the Longmaxi Formation in Dingshan; the features of fracture development in this reservoir were considered. 3 D finite element method(FEM) was applied in combination with rock mechanical parameters derived from the acoustic emissions. The paleotectonic stress field of the crack formation period was simulated for the Longmaxi Formation in the Dingshan area. The splitting factor in the study area was calculated based on the rock breaking criterion. The coefficient of fracture development was selected as the quantitative prediction classification criteria for the cracks. The results show that a higher coefficient of fracture development indicates a greater degree of fracture development. On the basis of the fracture development coefficient classification, a favorable area was identified for the development of fracture prediction in the study area. The prediction results indicate that the south of the Dingshan area and the DY3 well of the central region are favorable zones for fracture development.